MEMO: One Year Out, Democrats Poised to Take Back the House

With less than one year until Election Day, Democrats remain poised to take back the House in 2026 and elect Leader Hakeem Jeffries as the next Speaker. Fresh off commanding Democratic victories in California, New Jersey, and Virginia, voters across the country are sending a clear message: they’re rejecting a Republican era marked by broken promises, rising costs, and relentless attacks on health care. 

The Path Forward

Last night’s dramatic results are the latest evidence that the political winds are firmly at Democrats’ backs—and Republicans know it—heading into 2026. The proof is everywhere:

• Democrats have overperformed in every special election since 2024 by an average of 15%. 

• Twenty House Republicans have already announced they won’t seek reelection.

• The GOP is struggling to recruit credible candidates in competitive, Democratic-held districts across the country.

• Combined with Trump’s sinking support from Hispanic voters and young voters, the environment is ripe for a Democratic House in 2026.
  • Last night, Spanberger and Sherrill both won Hispanic voters by 2-to-1 margins, according to the exit polls.

• Per recent CNN polling:
  • Trump’s approval rating stands at 37%—the worst of his second term
  • Trump’s disapproval rating is 63%—higher than January 2021
  • 72% say the economy is in poor shape
  • 61% say Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the US

• Since 1994, the average midterm performance for the party out of power is +4.5% – this would be a 6% improvement for Democrats compared to 2024 when Donald Trump won the popular vote by 1.5%.

• If Democrats were to perform to the historical midterm average, this would translate into a 6 point shift in favor of Democrats from 2024 to 2026. 

• If Democrats were to perform at a 2018 level, which is seeming more and more likely based on the underlying data and last night’s results, this would translate to a 9.5 point shift from 2024 to 2026. 

• With no VRA decision, even if Trump succeeds in his attempt to gerrymander states across the country, Democrats are still favored to take back the House.

• Democrats have momentum and are on the path to retake the majority in 2026. Which is exactly why Trump and Republicans are trying to rig the election by aggressively gerrymandering states all across the country. 

• Despite those efforts and thanks to Prop 50, Democrats are still favored to pick up enough seats to elect Hakeem Jeffries the next Speaker. 

• In a scenario where the Supreme Court rules against the VRA, the battle for the House in 2026 would at worst become a toss-up.

• With Democrats losing in 2022 by only 6,000 votes across five seats, and 2024 being lost by 7,000 votes across three seats – we should not expect 2026 to be any different. Every seat matters.

Recruitment

In December 2024, HMP launched our 2026 Recruitment Fund with the intention of allowing us to recruit and prepare potential candidates earlier than ever – and those plans have paid off immensely over the last year. 

Throughout 2025, we conducted significant outreach and identified potential candidates across the country in an effort to properly equip Democratic candidates with the information and tools needed to defeat Republican incumbents in 2026. Thanks to those efforts, recruitment this cycle has been an outstanding success – with strong Democratic candidates in every competitive congressional race across the country. 

Meanwhile, House Republicans have struggled recruiting candidates in Democratic held seats. It has gotten so bad that their candidates are dropping out of races and are declaring, “I do not see a path to victory.”

The GOP’s pathetic candidate recruitment is a telling sign that after breaking their promises to lower costs, they will lose the House in 2026. 

California’s Proposition 50: HMP’s Efforts to Stop the GOP Power Grab

It was clear early that Prop 50 was crucial to combatting Trump’s efforts to gerrymander himself a permanent majority – and thanks to Gov. Newsom, the California Congressional delegation, and state legislative leaders – California responded accordingly. 

HMP directly contributed over $17 million to Prop 50 since the summer, playing a key role in its passage. Republican Reps. LaMalfa, Kiley, Calvert, Valadao, and Issa are on notice for 2026. 

Key takeaways:

• Prop 50 won in a LANDSLIDE, with a majority of independents (54%), those who don’t lean towards either party (51%), and 12% of Republicans. 
• In many of California’s counties with large Hispanic and Asian populations, Prop 50 greatly outran Vice President Harris. 
• According to CBS News exit polls, voters overwhelmingly said they voted for Prop 50 to counter the changes made by Republicans in other states.

Virginia and New Jersey Offer 2026 Insight

• Last night in Virginia:
  • VA-01: Career politician Rob Wittman should start packing his bags, as last night’s results now show him representing one of the most competitive congressional districts in the country. For example in Henrico County, Democrats jumped 11% in performance from 2021 and 2024 performance. 
  • VA-02: Jen Kiggans is officially on the hot seat. Abigail Spanberger won Virginia Beach by 10%, after voting for Youngkin by 8% and Vice President Harris by less than 3%. 
  • In CNN exit polling, voters consistently rated the economy and health care as the most important issues facing Virginia. 
  • Over 60% of Spanberger’s ads focused on economic issues like lowering costs. Spanberger also heavily featured law enforcement and public safety, positive education spots, and negative abortion spots.
  • Spanberger consistently singled out the historically unpopular One Big Beautiful Bill as a key driver of rising costs. 

• Last night in New Jersey:
  • The data increasingly shows that Mikie Sherrill won NJ-07 after Phil Murphy received only 43.7% of the vote in 2021. In 2024, Vice President Harris received 49.4% of the vote. Tom Kean Jr. is officially on the hot seat in 2026. 
  • In CNN exit polling, voters consistently rated the economy and health care as the most important issues facing New Jersey. 
  • Over 60% of Sherrill’s ads focused on economic issues like no sales tax increases and lowering costs — specifically utility rates. Sherrill’s ads also heavily featured big tech accountability spots where she discussed protecting kids and spots discussing funding for mental health services.

• These victories are replicable in 2026 if Democrats continue to put forward a proactive and relentless campaign focused on how we can lower costs and make Americans’ lives more affordable. 

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