capitol building

HMP MEMO: House Battleground Extends Deep Into Trump Territory

October 21, 2026

With less than two weeks until Election Day, House Majority PAC polling shows Democrats firmly on track to win back the House majority in November—and increasingly competitive in districts far beyond the traditional battleground. 

For the first time in years, Democrats have genuine pickup opportunities deep into Trump territory, in districts that were once considered entirely out of reach. Our polling shows that Democrats can compete in these districts, but translating that potential into additional victories will require resources to reach voters and make the case against vulnerable Republicans in the final sprint to Election Day.

Democrats have the momentum, candidates, and strategy to win the House—and now, HMP’s polling shows that with additional resources, even more expansion seats are within reach:

District2024 MarginDemocratic CandidateRepublican CandidatePollsterDates
FL-13Trump +13.547%46%PPP10/14/26-
10/15/26
IN-05Trump +17.247%48%Expedition Strategies9/30/26-
10/4/26
KY-06Trump +15.447%41%PPP10/19/26-
10/20/26
MN-01Trump +12.243%43%PPP10/13/26-
10/14/26
MO-02Trump +8.146%45%PPP10/19/26-
10/20/26
MT-01Trump +12.048%45%PPP10/12/26-
10/14/26
NC-09Trump +16.042%46%PPP10/19/26-
10/20/26
NE-01Trump +13.245%46%PPP10/19/26-
10/20/26
NV-02Trump +14.244%46%PPP10/12/26-
10/13-26
NY-21Trump +20.844%46%PPP10/12/26-
10/13-26
OH-15Trump +10.048%45%Hart Research10/9/26-
10/12/26
TX-23Trump +15.046%46%Normington Petts10/5/26-
10/7/26
TX-35Trump +10.647%45%Normington Petts10/12/26-
10/14/26

###