HMP Poll: Elaine Luria Has a Clear Path to Victory in VA-02
July 24, 2026
Washington, D.C. – A new House Majority PAC poll of Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, conducted by Tulchin Research from July 9-13, finds Democratic candidate Elaine Luria in a strong position against Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in the race for Congress, pulling ahead after voters learn more about the candidates.
Key findings from HMP’s poll include:
- Elaine Luria and Jen Kiggans begin the race tied: In the initial head-to-head ballot test, Luria and Kiggans are tied at 47% to 47%.
- Luria pulls ahead of Kiggans after voters learn more about both candidates: After voters hear positive biographies of both candidates, Luria takes a 48% to 46% lead over Kiggans.
- Donald Trump is deeply underwater in VA-02: Trump’s favorability rating stands at 42% favorable to 57% unfavorable, for a net favorability of -15 points.
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