MEMO: 2023 Election Results Further Evidence Democrats Will Retake House 

Last night, Democrats across the country once again proved the naysayers and bedwetters wrong, with resounding victories in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia, and across New York State. There is a clear path for Democrats to retake the House in 2024, and Democrats must continue to play offense while also building the contrast with extreme MAGA House Republicans.

Abortion Still Top Of Mind For Americans EVERYWHERE

TOPLINE: Last night, Ohioans voted to enshrine abortion access into their state constitution – another resounding win for American freedom. If you are wondering if abortion will play a pivotal role in 2024, the answer is YES.

• If MAGA Mike Johnson and House Republicans get their way, they will implement a nationwide abortion ban – restricting American freedoms and ripping rights away from millions of women. Vulnerable House Republicans are complicit in this attack on essential rights. 
• A recent poll conducted by HMP’s 501(c)4 affiliate, House Majority Forward, shows that 61% of CA-27 constituents disapprove of Rep. Mike Garcia’s vote to place a nationwide restriction on abortion access by outlawing mifepristone, an abortion pill, from being sold in retail pharmacies and by mail – including in California. 
• Vulnerable Republicans like Rep. Brandon Williams have co-sponsored H.R. 7, which would outlaw abortion care for millions covered by the Affordable Care Act.

Build Contrast

TOPLINE: Research projects conducted by HMP have shown time and time again that Democrats win when they go on offense to talk about the economy, and then contrast that with Republican abortion extremism. 

• Democrats are growing the middle class, strengthening our economy, lowering costs, and boosting domestic manufacturing.
  • CHIPS: President Biden and Congressional Democrats passed the historic CHIPS and Science Act, which is boosting domestic manufacturing, creating thousands of new jobs, taking on China, and tackling inflation by bringing supply chains back home.
  • Inflation Reduction Act: President Biden and Democrats passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which over the last year has worked to combat inflation, keep costs under control, protect affordable health care, address climate change, and fight for American families.
  • Infrastructure: The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law is a historic investment in American infrastructure, and it is already delivering in congressional districts across the country. 
  • Apprenticeships: Democrats have created more apprenticeship programs for workers to learn new skills and trades, which will strengthen the American workforce and boost middle class growth. 
  • Lowering Costs: President Biden and Democrats lowered the costs of prescription drugs and health care through the Inflation Reduction Act, placing a $35 cap on insulin. 
  • Record Jobs Numbers: The United States has seen record job growth, with more than 14 million jobs added, including hundreds and thousands of manufacturing, clean energy, and good paying union jobs that are growing the American middle class.
• Meanwhile under Speaker Mike Johnson, House Republicans have  entered a new era of abortion extremism, and it will sink vulnerable members across the map. 
• The contrast is clear – Democrats are fighting to lower costs and strengthen the American economy while Republicans want to rip away rights and ban abortion. 

GOP’s Lackluster Candidate Recruitment

TOPLINE: House Republicans face a major recruitment problem, as their hand-candidates are vastly out of step with everyday Americans. A recent memo by Congressional Leadership Fund touted four “star candidates of character” – but the fact remains that their toxic positions will doom their chances in 2024. 

• State Rep. Craig Riedel, OH-09: Craig Riedel supports a draconian abortion ban that starts at conception, and last night’s results in Ohio do not bode well for him. Riedel will also first have to defeat 2022 nominee JR Majewski, who defeated Riedel in the 2022 primary, before he can even think about losing next year’s general election. 
• Former state Sen. Tom Barrett, MI-07: Tom Barrett supported a 1931 law criminalizing abortion, and wrote resolutions which supported the jailing of doctors. Michiganders rejected his extremism in 2022, and they will again in 2024.
• Derrick Anderson, VA-07: Derrick Anderson, who is best known for losing the 2022 primary to general election loser Yesli Vega, is an anti-choice extremist who is out of touch with Virginians. We anticipate that CLF and the NRCC will triage this district next fall. 
• Alison Esposito, NY-18: An already weak candidate, Alison Esposito supports a nationwide abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest. New Yorkers will have the opportunity to protect abortion rights at the polls next year, which bodes poorly for Esposito’s MAGA candidacy. 

Red State Wins Put Trump Districts On The Radar

TOPLINE: With Governor Beshear’s resounding win and a major victory in Ohio, Democrats have proven that they can compete and win in Republican territory. Based off of last night’s results, the following Trump-won districts could be incredibly competitive in 2024: 

• CA-41
• CO-03
• IA-01
• IA-02
• MI-10
• MT-01
• PA-10
• TX-15
• WI-01
• WI-03

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