MEMO: Elections in WI And FL Show Path Towards Flipping The House in 2026

Tonight, Democrats dramatically overperformed in Florida, and achieved victory in Wisconsin’s State Supreme Court race, revealing that the political headwinds are firmly at our backs heading into 2026.

The Issues
Since January, Trump and Republicans have broken promise after promise, voting to gut Medicaid and empowering Elon Musk to raise costs for hardworking Americans in order to fund tax cuts for the wealthy:

• PRICES: According to recent polls from CBS News and AP-NORC, Americans are souring on Trump’s economic policies and don’t believe he is prioritizing lowering costs. 
• TRUMP TARIFFS=HIGHER COSTS: Per AP-NORC, 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of trade policy – and while he “couldn’t care less” if prices go up, the vast majority of Americans will.  
• MEDICAID: Medicaid, which House Republicans recently voted to cut, emerged as a crucial issue in Florida. GOP Medicaid cuts will cost many Republicans re-election in key House districts across the country where large swaths of the electorate rely on the popular program for health care.
• ELON MUSK: Pumping millions into the Wisconsin Supreme Court race in an overt attempt to buy the seat did not sit well with voters. As Musk’s approval rating continues to sink, Democrats should continue to highlight his attacks on the benefits Americans have earned.  

Democratic Overperformance
Are there House Republican retirements coming soon? Based on tonight’s results, the likely answer is YES. 

If you apply tonight’s overperformance in FL-01 and FL-06 across the House battlefield in 2026, Democrats would be on track to flip over 40 seats, including key toss-up districts like: 

• AK-AL
• AZ-01
• AZ-02
• AZ-06
• CA-03
• CA-22
• CA-40
• CA-41
• CO-03
• CO-08
• FL-13
• IA-01
• IA-03
• MI-07
• MI-10
• MT-01
• NE-02
• NJ-07
• NY-01
• NY-17
• PA-01
• PA-07
• PA-08
• PA-10
• VA-01
• VA-02
• WI-01
• WI-03

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