MEMO: HMP New York Fund Update Post Redistricting

One year ago, House Majority PAC announced a historic $45 million New York Fund program for the 2024 election cycle. After victory in the NY-03 special election and new congressional maps, you can find below our latest update on New York. 

Despite Democrats’ 2022 underperformance in New York, the path back to a Democratic House Majority runs through the Empire State. The math is clear: 

• Democrats must gain 4 seats to elect Hakeem Jeffries the next Speaker of the House. 
• 16 Republicans represent districts President Biden won in 2020.
• 4 of those 16 districts are in New York.

How Are We Winning?
We’ve already started. Tom Suozzi’s decisive victory in New York’s 3rd District special election marks the beginning of House Democrats’ march back to the Majority. HMP invested nearly $8 million in this race because that’s what we had to do to win. If we are able to replicate the results in NY-03 across the remaining 16 seats won by President Biden in 2020 that are now held by Republicans, Democrats would win all 16. 

The November 2023 elections additionally showed clear momentum for Democrats across the country and in New York: 

• NY-17: Flipped enough seats from red to blue in the Rockland County Legislature to secure a supermajority
• NY-18: Flipped the City of Poughkeepsie Mayor’s office, electing the first Black woman to serve as Mayor
• NY-18: Flipped the Dutchess County District Attorney’s office from red to blue for the first time ever
• NY-19: Flipped the Binghamton City Council from red to blue and secured a supermajority 
• NY-19: Flipped the Columbia County District Attorney’s office from red to blue
• NY-19: Flipped the Sullivan County Legislature from red to blue 
• NY-22: Flipped two county-wide offices in Onondaga County from red to blue

How Are Republicans Losing? 
Republicans in New York are their own worst enemies – voting to restrict abortion access in New York, opposing bipartisan border security legislation, voting to cut veterans benefits, and so much more. In addition to these career-ending votes, leadership is nowhere to be found.

While Elise Stefanik pledged in August 2023 to spend $100 million in New York swing districts, Stefanik was missing in action throughout the NY-03 special election and is more focused on running for Vice President than protecting vulnerable incumbents – HMP thanks her for that. 

Here’s how the districts break down after redistricting: 

• NY-01: NY-01 remains one of the most competitive districts in the country with a slight tilt towards Republicans. With redistricting shoring up other competitive districts and a path to victory on Long Island laid out by Rep. Tom Suozzi, HMP could re-allocate a substantial amount of resources to this district. 
• NY-03: NY-03 becomes slightly more Democratic and after a resounding win in the NY-03 special election, we feel confident that Rep. Tom Suozzi will be re-elected this fall. 
• NY-04: NY-04 stays roughly the same and Rep. Anthony D’Esposito has gone into full panic mode after the special election in NY-03. Nassau County rejected the shared agenda of Mazi Pilip and Anthony D’Esposito, and with presidential year turnout, we will flip this seat blue.  
• NY-17: NY-17 remains virtually the same as before. Thankfully for us, the Republican nominee will be Rep. Mike Lawler, who voted to hold the economy hostage, cut veterans benefits by 22%, fire 108,000 teachers and aides, defund 30,000 law enforcement positions, kill 800,000 jobs, and eliminate health care for New Yorkers.
• NY-18: Congressional Leadership Fund has touted Alison Esposito as a “star candidate of character”, but her anti-choice, carpetbagging campaign has failed to launch. Esposito only has $198,093 cash on hand. Meanwhile, Rep. Pat Ryan has $2.2 million cash on hand.
• NY-19: NY-19’s makeup remains similar. Career politician Marc Molinaro’s is running on fumes – from his embrace of Speaker Mike Johnson to his Democratic opponent Josh Riley consistently raising more. Riley came within one point of winning in 2022 and overperformed the top of the ticket more than any other NY candidate.
• NY-22: NY-22 becomes even more of an opportunity for Democrats in 2022 — increasing Biden’s vote share by nearly 4% over the previous map. Rep. Brandon Williams won by only 1% of the vote on the old maps, and has taken vote after vote showing he is grossly out-of-touch with this swing district, including co-sponsoring H.R. 7 which supports restricting access to abortion in New York. Williams will lose in November.

House Majority PAC will be the largest investor in New York Democratic campaigns in 2024, and we will flip these New York districts blue and take back the House. 

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