MEMO: HMP Polling Shows Democrats Poised to Take Back the House

With less than two months until Election Day and unprecedented chaos coming from House Republicans, battleground and district polling conducted by HMP continues to indicate that Democrats are poised to take back the House in November. 

With House Republicans calling on their donors to step up, it is vital that we have the resources we need in this final sprint to Election Day. 

Recent district polling conducted by HMP shows, Democratic challengers virtually tied or running ahead of their GOP incumbents:

District	Date	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Pollster
AZ-01	8/8 – 8/13	48%	47%	GBAO
CA-22	8/25 – 8/27	46%	44%	Normington Petts
NE-02	7/16 – 7/21	49%	45%	GQR
NY-04	8/26 – 8/30	50%	47%	GQR
NY-22	7/9 – 7/15	50%	43%	GQR
VA-02	8/20 – 8/25	47%	48%	Impact Research

Additional battleground polling from HMP continues to show that Project 2025 is incredibly unpopular. 

• About 7-in-10 voters are familiar with the agenda and those who know it view it unfavorably (13% favorable / 57% unfavorable). 
• A majority of voters who are familiar with Project 2025 believe that Trump (68%) and Republicans in Congress (66%) support these ideas and will try to put them in place. 

Messaging on abortion, the economy, and health care raises concerns – especially when incorporating Project 2025. 

• Our top hits against Republicans highlight that they’re aligned with Project 2025 which would ban all abortions (54% very serious concerns), that Project 2025 would hurt working people (53% very serious concerns), and that Project 2025 would gut healthcare coverage (52% very serious concerns). 
• An ad that emphasizes that Congressional Republicans will be a rubber stamp for Trump and enact Project 2025 also raises concerns (52% very serious concerns). 

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