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MEMO: Victory In NY-03 Sets the Stage for Democrats to Take Back The House in 2024

February 14, 2024

Last night, House Democrats flipped New York’s 3rd Congressional District, and now need to flip only four seats to take back the House in 2024. But in a must-win special election, NY-03 presented unique challenges that HMP embraced from day one to lead in message development, spending, strategy, and turnout. 

HMP’s Plan of Attack

TOPLINE: NY-03 is a district that has rapidly pivoted away from Democrats since President Biden’s 8-point win in 2020. In 2022, Governor Hochul and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer lost this district by 12 points and 4 points, respectively. And, in November 2023, Republicans swept state and local elections in the district, further cementing the GOP’s stronghold in the area.  HMP’s plan from the start of this campaign operated from that understanding, and that reality informed every aspect of HMP’s strategy.

Messaging Matters

TOPLINE: In 2022, economic contrast research projects conducted by HMP showed repeatedly that Democrats dramatically improved their position when they went on offense to talk about the economy. Democrats must do the same on immigration while continuing to define Republicans as extremists on abortion and drawing contrast with flawed GOP candidates. 

Reaching Out to EVERY Voter

TOPLINE: Democrats will not take back the House unless we reach out to EVERY voter. That’s why HMP made extensive efforts to communicate with Latino and AAPI communities in NY-03 early and often with persuasion and mobilization messages.

Democrats On Track to Take Back the House

TOPLINE: Last night’s victory shows that Democrats have a clear path to taking back the House – and HMP will do whatever it takes to get that done. 

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