New HMP Polling Shows TX-23 Is In Play for Democrats

Washington, D.C. – A new House Majority PAC poll of TX-23 finds Democratic candidate Katy Padilla Stout within striking distance of deeply unpopular and incredibly flawed Republican candidate Brandon Herrera. 

With competitive races for Governor and U.S. Senate on the ballot and a president who is increasingly unpopular in the district, top-of-the-ticket dynamics could also have a notable impact on the environment in TX-23. The data proves what we all know: the House battlefield has firmly expanded into districts like TX-23, where Trump won twice yet where today he’s an anchor pulling Republicans down and toward Democrats at the ballot box.

Key findings from HMP’s poll include:

• Katy Padilla Stout is already within striking distance: In a head-to-head matchup, 40% of voters say they would support Democrat Katy Padilla Stout while 42% support Republican Brandon Herrera, with 18% undecided. GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales won the district by more than 24 points in 2024, underscoring how significantly the race has tightened.
   
• Katy Padilla Stout has a strong foundation and significant room to grow: Stout’s 21% favorable already outpaces her 17% unfavorable, and with 61% of the district still undecided on her image, there is significant room to grow.
   
• Meanwhile, Brandon Herrera’s image is set—and he is deeply unpopular: Herrera’s favorability is underwater in the district. 35% of TX-23 voters hold an unfavorable view of Herrera, while just 29% hold a favorable view. 36% said they are not sure.
  
  
• TX-23 voters express serious concerns about Brandon Herrera, highlighting potent lines of attack against the candidate:
  
  • Mocking Veteran Suicide: After learning that Brandon Herrera has been criticized for mocking veteran suicide—calling himself an “honorary veteran” because he often thinks about “putting a gun in my mouth”—62% of voters said it raised concerns.
    
  • Antisemitism: After learning that critics have accused Brandon Herrera of having a long history of making antisemitic comments and of bragging about owning a copy of Mein Kampf, 58% of voters said it raised concerns. 
    
    
• Democrats are within striking distance on the generic House ballot: When asked how they would vote if the election were held today, 45% of TX-23 voters said they would support the Democratic candidate for Congress, compared to 47% who said they would support the Republican candidate, with 8% undecided.
  
  
• Democrats are competitive in key statewide races among TX-23 voters, which could have a positive down-ballot impact:
  
  • Governor: In a head-to-head matchup, 48% of TX-23 voters support Democrat Gina Hinojosa and 48% support Republican Greg Abbott, with 5% undecided.
    
  • U.S. Senate: James Talarico leads both potential Republican opponents: 
    
    • Talarico vs. Cornyn: 48% support Democrat James Talarico, while 42% support Republican John Cornyn, with 10% undecided.
      
    • Talarico vs. Paxton: 49% support Democrat James Talarico, while 44% support Republican Ken Paxton, with 7% undecided.
      
      
• Trump could drag Brandon Herrera down in TX-23: With a majority (52%) of voters holding an unfavorable view of Trump and 50% disapproving of his job performance, the political environment in TX-23 is trending against the President and his party.
   
• Trump is especially weak on the economy in TX-23: More than half (51%) of TX-23 voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, and an even larger share (53%) disapprove of his handling of inflation and affordability.
   
• Trump’s war in Iran is unpopular in the district: Nearly half of TX-23 voters (48%) disapprove of Trump’s handling of Iran, compared to 45% who approve. 7% are unsure.