HMP MEMO: With 100 Days Until Election Day, A Clear Path To A Democratic Majority

With 100 days until Election Day, Democrats are poised to take back the House in November. House Democrats’ commanding position is due to a combination of elements, including the creation of a winning message on affordability and corruption and broken promises from Republicans who have done nothing but raise costs and start new wars. Additional factors include:

• Political Environment Does Not Favor Republicans: Recent polling shows a favorable political environment for Democrats, especially as Republicans have little to show for themselves despite controlling all three branches of government. Voters greatly resent the fact that they broke their promise to lower costs on Day One.
   
• Increased Focus On Candidate Recruitment: Democrats prioritized a laser-focus on recruiting authentic candidates who fit their districts and are out raising House Republicans. 
   
• Prioritization of Message Discipline: Democrats have coalesced around a disciplined message centered on lowering costs and fighting corruption.  
   
• A Targeted Investment and Fundraising Strategy: HMP has made historic investments fueled by record breaking fundraising that ensure these races will be fully contested through Election Day.

The Political Environment Is Increasingly Unfavorable Toward Republicans
Ample evidence shows the political winds are firmly at Democrats’ backs—and Republicans know it—heading into the fall. The proof is everywhere:

• During the 2026 cycle, Democrats have outperformed the 2024 presidential baseline in nearly 85% of special elections, making gains in districts and states across the country.
   
• Recent special election results in Florida, combined with strong Democratic gains in the 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, indicate that Democrats are winning back independent voters.

Republican Incumbents And Candidates Are Sounding The Alarm In Districts Trump Won By Double Digits
Republicans are predicting their races—and the midterms in general—will be difficult for the GOP:

• Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz says her race is tied in TX-15, a district Trump won by 18 points.
   
• Republican Rep. Max Miller says his race in OH-07, which Trump won by 11 points, is “tough”. 
   
• Republican Rep. Mark Amodei says retaining his seat in NV-02, a district Trump won by 14 points, “isn’t a Republican guarantee”.
   
• In TX-23, Republican nominee Brandon Herrera warns his party is on track to lose in November – “Right now this is going to be a rough midterm”.

Republican Incumbents Are Retiring In Droves

• 36 House Republicans have already announced they won’t seek reelection—the highest number since 1930, when the economy was in shambles due to an ineffective Republican president.

Trump’s Approval Rating Is Plummeting And Key Groups Are Returning To The Democratic Party

• With Trump’s sinking support from Hispanic voters and young voters, the environment is ripe for a Democratic House in 2026.
  • In statewide off year elections last November, Governor Abigail Spanberger and Governor Mikie Sherrill both won Hispanic voters by 2-to-1 margins, according to exit polls.
     
• Per recent Economist/YouGovpoll polling:
  • Trump’s disapproval rating is 61%—higher than January 2021
  • Trump’s approval rating stands at 35%—the worst of his second term
     
• Since 1994, the average midterm performance for the party out of power is +4.5% – this would be a 6% improvement for Democrats compared to 2024 when Donald Trump won the popular vote by 1.5%.

Key Message Discipline: Lowering Costs And Tackling Corruption

• Economic contrast research projects conducted by HMP repeatedly show that rather than allowing Republicans to define the debate, Democratic candidates and incumbents are successfully going on offense by emphasizing:
  • Lowering the cost of living
  • Holding corporations and special interests accountable
  • Opposing policies that raise costs for families, including tariffs
  • Fighting corruption by supporting reforms such as banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks

Recruitment Has Produced One Of The Strongest Candidate Classes In Years
In December 2024, HMP launched our 2026 Recruitment Fund with the intention of allowing us to recruit and prepare potential candidates earlier than ever—and those plans have paid off.

• Throughout 2025, HMP and our partners and allies conducted significant outreach and identified potential candidates across the country in an effort to properly equip Democratic candidates with the tools needed to defeat Republican incumbents in 2026. 
   
• Thanks to those efforts, several candidates that HMP worked to recruit are in a strong position to flip Republican-held seats in November.
   
• Democrats recruited candidates like JoAnna Mendoza (AZ-06), Cait Conley (NY-17), and Bobby Pulido (TX-15) who have eliminated incumbent fundraising advantages and continue to break records. 

Our Historic Investments Put Democrats On Offense
HMP has made historic investments in digital and television reservations across the country fueled by record fundraising gains.

• The sum of HMP-IE’s initial TV and digital advertising reservations totals $283.48 million in over 58 media markets across the country. 
   
• Nearly 80% of our reservations are in offensive districts—underscoring HMP’s commitment to aggressively expanding the House battlefield and putting more seats in play than ever before. 
   
• HMP and HMF raised a combined $94 million in the second quarter of 2026. That total is almost more than double the $51 million the Democratic groups raised during the same period in 2024. 
   
• The two groups raised $69 million in Q1 of 2026 and $121 million in 2025, marking their best non-election year result.

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