MEMO: HMP 2026 Recruitment Fund

Headed into the 2024 election, HMP knew that the fight for the House would come down to the wire – with either side likely to prevail with a small majority. That’s why HMP announced our New York and California funds in early 2023, which allowed us to prepare and fully fund the many critical races in these incredibly expensive media markets.

Unfortunately, Trump’s lead in the 2024 popular vote created incredibly tough headwinds for our candidates, and we faced a national environment that trended towards 6% more Republican than 2020. In spite of these challenges and clear disappointments, House Democrats significantly overperformed the top of the ticket and the political environment – all thanks to our quality candidates and your help.

Headed into the midterms with lessons learned from 2024, HMP is today launching a 2026 Recruitment Fund – which will allow us to recruit and prepare potential candidates earlier than ever. With Republicans like Mike Lawler, Juan Ciscomani, John James, and potentially others likely leaving their seats, we must ensure Democratic campaigns are set up for success – and that comes through conducting qualitative and quantitative research to develop specific messaging and strategies for individual races. 

Recruiting Quality Candidates

• Winning elections starts with recruiting candidates who are representative of the districts in which they live, and ensuring they can speak with an authentic voice. 

• HMP has already been conducting significant outreach and researching potential candidates across the country, and will continue doing so in the coming months to ensure that the best possible candidates are identified and properly equipped  to defeat Republican incumbents in 2026. 

Research and Republican Accountability

• In 2024, HMP was able to flip 8 seats in part because of sustained paid accountability programs that defined Republicans before they could define themselves on key issues including the economy, abortion, and immigration. 

• For 2026, we plan to supercharge these programs by conducting ongoing qualitative and quantitative research to understand the most effective persuasion and mobilization messaging for key voters, and investing in targeted outreach for Hispanic, AAPI, and Black audiences. 

• Conduct a robust vetting process to identify quality candidates with compelling personal stories that best represent targeted districts. 

Earned Media Amplification

• Earned media is crucial to building a brand and a profile, which is why HMP’s team plans to work extensively with incumbent House Democrats and star recruits to provide earned media opportunities across mediums. 

• This work includes traditional media outlets on a national and local level, but also extensive outreach and communication to voters through podcasts, Youtube, influencers, and content creators. 

2026 Targeted Districts

The below races are top targets for House Democrats in 2026. 

• AK-AL, Nick Begich
• AZ-01, David Schweikert
• AZ-02, Eli Crane
• AZ-06, Juan Ciscomani (Potential Open Seat)
• CA-03, Kevin Kiley
• CA-22, David Valadao
• CA-40, Young Kim
• CA-41, Ken Calvert
• CO-03, Jeff Hurd
• CO-08, Gabe Evans
• FL-13, Anna Paulina Luna
• IA-01, Mariannette Miller-Meeks
• IA-03, Zach Nunn
• MI-04, Bill Huizenga
• MI-07, Tom Barrett
• MI-10, John James (Potential Open Seat)
• MT-01, Ryan Zinke
• NE-02, Don Bacon
• NJ-07, Tom Kean Jr. 
• NY-01, Nick LaLota
• NY-17, Mike Lawler (Potential Open Seat)
• PA-07, Ryan Mackenzie
• PA-08, Rob Bresnahan
• PA-10, Scott Perry
• TX-15, Monica de la Cruz
• VA-01, Rob Wittman 
• VA-02, Jen Kiggans
• WI-01, Bryan Steil
• WI-03, Derrick Van Orden

2026 Districts To Watch

The below races, with quality candidates and strong campaigns, could become competitive given the makeup of these districts. 

• IA-02, Ashley Hinson
• FL-07, Cory Mills
• FL-15, Laurel Lee
• FL-27, Maria Elvira Salazar
• FL-28, Carlos Gimenez
• KY-06, Andy Barr
• MN-01, Brad Finstad
• MN-08, Pete Stauber
• MO-02, Ann Wagner
• NY-02, Andrew Garbarino
• OH-10, Mike Turner
• OK-05, Stephanie Bice
• TN-05, Andy Ogles
• TX-23, Tony Gonzales
• SC-01, Nancy Mace
• NC-11, Chuck Edwards

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