HMP MEMO: Blue Tsunami: Democrats Win House Majority in “Generational Wipeout” and Make History

Last night, voters across the country delivered a historic rejection of House Republicans and Donald Trump, returning Democrats to the House majority. As the single largest spender for House races in the entire country, House Majority PAC played a critical role in Democrats’ unprecedented and historic wins across the country. Together with our affiliated organization, we invested more than $600 million this cycle.

This victory did not happen overnight. 

In the aftermath of the 2024 election, when Democrats suffered historic losses and the party’s national brand was deeply underwater, House Majority PAC built a strategy to expand the battlefield and put Democrats in a position to compete in districts that had long been considered out of reach. That strategy centered on two overarching priorities: 

1. Across the battlefield, we recruited candidates with authentic, compelling messages rooted in public service, people who had already delivered for their communities as veterans, health care workers, and local leaders.
   
2. We aligned the party around a winning message focused on voters’ economic concerns, because our goal was simple: voters needed to believe Democrats were the party most focused on the economy.

HMP knew that in order to win at that magnitude was necessary to meet the moment, this election had to be more than simply rejecting Donald Trump. Democrats had to give voters a real alternative. We needed to show voters that Democrats were better positioned than Republicans to fight on the issues they care about most: the cost of living and the economy. 

Making History Started In 2024
TOPLINE: Immediately after the 2024 election, HMP launched an unprecedented effort to win back working class voters and recruit stellar Democratic candidates in deep-red districts. 

Recruitment

• One of the biggest lessons from 2024 was that candidate quality mattered, and Democrats could not afford to wait until the traditional battleground map took shape to begin competing. 
• For the first time, HMP launched a 2026 Recruitment Fund in December 2024—just one month after Election Day—bringing together partners from across the ecosystem to identify, recruit, vet, and prepare strong Democratic candidates earlier than ever before. 
• The announcement was intended to underscore our ambitious approach and put Republicans on notice, but more importantly, to signal that these districts were serious investment priorities and encourage strong Democratic candidates to step forward and consider running.
• HMP made a concerted effort to recruit deep into Trump territory, including districts that had not previously been considered competitive or targeted for significant investment. Our December 2024 recruitment priorities specifically name checked: IA-02, KY-06, NC-11, OH-10, SC-01, TX-23, VA-01, and WI-01. 
• Candidates HMP vetted 120 candidates across 50 districts, and played a vital role in recruiting JoAnna Mendoza (AZ-06), Lindsay James (IA-02), Sarah Trone-Garriott (IA-03), Jamie Ager (NC-11), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Paige Cognetti (PA-08).

Winning Back Working Class Voters

• In early 2025, HMP announced a $50 million Win Them Back Fund focused on winning back the working class voters who voted Republican in 2024 because they didn’t see Democrats as prioritizing the issue that mattered most to them – the economy.
• Thanks to HMP’s commitment to improving the Democratic party’s brand with working class voters, we saw massive shifts across every demographic group away from Republicans and towards Democrats. Democratic candidates were able to win in states across the map and in areas Republicans never even thought were competitive. 

Messaging
TOPLINE: HMP led the way in crafting the winning Democratic message in 2026: “Their Corruption is Costing You,” which resulted in a heavy ad focus on the economy—with ads that tested through the roof. 

Developing The Winning Message

• Almost one year ago today, HMP began a major research project intended to deepen our understanding of how voters were thinking about the economy.
• While we knew costs constituted voters’ top issue, a key question we had was “who do you blame for rising costs?” Our qualitative research found voters cast blame far and wide, from greedy corporations and their wealthy CEOs, to corrupt and conflicted politicians.
• Voters chose politicians by a 2 to 1 margin when asked to assign blame for high costs. 
• Guidance for Democratic members and candidates emerged from our research: One of the most effective ways to communicate House Republicans’ corruption was to connect it directly to the rising costs Americans were experiencing in their everyday lives. Rather than treating issues like congressional stock trading and Republicans’ refusal to ban the practice as isolated examples of corruption, we tied them to a broader narrative of self-enrichment at the expense of working families. 
• By highlighting how Republicans were personally benefiting while casting votes that drove up costs for their constituents, we made corruption a tangible kitchen-table issue rather than an abstract concern about ethics in Washington.
• The Message: Asked to come up with a short phrase to explain our negative frame on the Republican majority, we landed on “Their Corruption is Costing Us.”

Getting The Message Out

• HMP then produced a total of 1,384 television ads, digital ads, radio ads, and direct mail pieces in 2026: 76% mentioned economic issues, 60% mentioned corruption/character issues, and 35% mentioned health care. 
• Through extensive ad testing with Blue Rose Research, we found a vast majority of our ads increased support for the Democrat in its respective district. 

HMP’s Top 10 Tested Ads of the Cycle

District	Ad	House Vote Choice	House GOP Candidate Unfav
OH-07	Caged Bird	9.90%	14.50%
PA-08	Predators – Mom	9.00%	13.80%
TX-15	Cruel and Aggressive	8.90%	15.70%
PA-08	Predators-Teacher	8.90%	12.90%
KY-06	Suffering	8.80%	15.10%
ME-02	Showed Us	8.60%	13.80%
WA-03	History	8.50%	12.60%

Post-2024 Messaging Analysis

• In April 2025, HMP finalized our internal lessons learned analysis of the 2024 election with Blue Rose Research to evaluate Congressional campaign programming and candidate quality. 
• The findings reinforced what we had already seen nationally: Trump’s victory was driven by voters’ concerns about the cost of living and the economy. 
• We knew Democrats needed to address that vulnerability, and Blue Rose’s analysis provided the data-driven evidence to validate our approach and double down on economic messaging.

Strategic Spending
TOPLINE: Cycle after cycle, our Republican counterparts outspent HMP. We recognized early that in 2026, that spending disparity would only grow thanks to MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk—Republicans ultimately outspent House Democrats by nearly $175 million. This meant HMP would have to raise more than ever and be more strategic in how our money was spent that Republicans—a strategy that proved extremely successful and consequential.

Fighting Back Against GOP Attempts To Rig The Maps

• As Democrats gained ground in the fight over the cost of living, Donald Trump launched an unprecedented campaign to pressure Republican-led states into redrawing congressional maps to protect and expand the House Republican majority. At the same time, Republicans continued their efforts to weaken the Voting Rights Act, threatening protections for Black voters and congressional districts across the country.
• But HMP refused to cede ground. Working alongside national partners and Democratic leaders, HMP helped lead a coordinated effort to counter Republican redistricting efforts and take the fight directly to Republicans. In July 2025, HMP launched its Lone Star Fund to respond to Trump and James Blair’s push for aggressive partisan gerrymandering in Texas. HMP followed through on that commitment in 2026, spending nearly $30 million across five Texas congressional districts and turning the Republican gerrymander into a true dummymander.
• Nowhere was that broader effort more evident than in California, where leaders including Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Pete Aguilar, Zoe Lofgren, and Governor Gavin Newsom helped spearhead the fight for Proposition 50. In partnership with Governor Newsom, HMP helped raise more than $100 million and played a key role in securing the measure’s passage, demonstrating Democrats’ determination not only to fight back against Republican redistricting efforts but to go on offense. 

Historic Ad Reservations 

• HMP made its largest early paid communications investment in organizational history, placing $272 million in initial television and digital reservations in April 2026 across 68 media markets. Nearly 80% of those reservations were in offensive districts, reflecting our commitment to expanding the battlefield rather than simply defending existing Democratic territory.
• Our initial reservations included $80 million in digital advertising inventory, double our $40 million reservation in 2024. HMP subsequently placed additional reservations in Virginia, Florida, and Ohio as the battlefield continued to expand.
• Crucially, we made these investments before the full scale of the massive and unprecedented Republican spending spree in House races became clear. By reserving inventory early, HMP secured valuable media at considerably lower rates – ultimately saving nearly $130 million that was reinvested directly into the battlefield and enabling us to pick up more seats. This ensured our paid communications had the reach and frequency necessary to catch voters’ attention when they were making up their minds. 

Digital Advertising

• In 2026, HMP made record-setting investments in digital advertising, following swing voters as they lean toward YouTube, other streaming platforms, and digital audio. 
• As campaign finance laws enabled candidates and coordinated-side entities to funnel more and more money to lowest-unit rate television, we further prioritized digital. 
• HMP’s approach to digital advertising differed from others in that we didn’t just view it as a medium for micro-targeting. This is because we understand that streaming now rivals the combined viewership of broadcast and cable on TV screens alone. And digital ads reach beyond that, onto phones and laptops. 
• This cycle, HMP spent and helped direct over $100 million to digital advertising, largely on YouTube and streaming platforms. We completely saturated YouTube and CTV in the final weeks across our battlefield. We spent more than double what we did online last cycle. So much so that HMP was the single largest partisan political spender on YouTube. 
• Digital audio was a larger part of our media mix than ever before — we spent nearly $3M, a 723% increase from 2024. Our ads blanketed podcasts and streaming music apps.

What’s Next?

Democrats Cannot Rest On Our Laurels

• Public and private data now shows that Democrats are more trusted than Republicans on the economy and corruption – we have a golden opportunity to regain lost ground with millions of Americans.
• Now that we have taken back the House, we must immediately start delivering for the American people – cracking down on corruption and making life more affordable.
• That path forward starts with the election of Hakeem Jeffries as the next Speaker of the House – where a focus on costs, corruption, and care will be the top priority. 

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