HMP MEMO: Polling Shows Path To A Larger Democratic Majority Exists With Necessary Funding
August 27, 2026
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: House Majority PAC
DATE: August 27, 2026
RE: Polling Shows Path To A Larger Democratic Majority Exists With Necessary Funding
In December 2024, HMP announced a 2026 Recruitment Fund with the mission of recruiting and preparing potential candidates earlier than ever to expand the House battlefield deeper into Trump territory. HMP knew from Day One that with the right candidates with the right message in the right environment, we could put deep red districts in play – the only thing we would need were sufficient resources to ensure that message reached voters.
Now with less than 70 days until Election Day, internal HMP and public polling shows those Democratic candidates competing deeper into Trump territory than previous cycles. Thanks to Democrats prioritizing affordability and cost of living issues, we are now seeing that voters believe Democrats are more aligned with the issues they care most about.
HMP remains laser focused on the toss-up districts that will give Democrats a House majority and now, as Democratic momentum continues to build, we are seeing positive data coming back from districts where Donald Trump won by 10% or more in 2024. But with MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk holding more than $500 million cash-on-hand, we’re limited in our ability to go deeper into the map and win more seats. With additional resources in the final stretch, HMP can invest in these races and help ensure we elect the largest possible Democratic majority.
According to our data, with the appropriate funding Democrats have the unique chance to flip districts that are new to the House battleground this cycle including:
| District | Date | Democratic Candidate | Republican Candidate | Pollster |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO-03 Campaign Internal Poll | July 21-23 | Dwayne Romero: 45% | Jeff Hurd: 46% | Keating Research |
| CO-05 Campaign Internal Poll | July 16-21 | Jessica Killin: 44% | Jeff Crank: 45% | GSG |
| FL-13 Campaign Internal Poll | August 4-6 | Leela Gray: 44% | Anna Paulina Luna: 47% | GQR |
| FL-22 Independent Poll | August 10-12 | Pia Dandiya: 50% | Casey Askar: 50% | Tavern Research |
| IA-02 HMP Poll | July 14-19 | Lindsay James: 46% | Joe Mitchell: 45% | GSG |
| KY-06 HMP Poll | August 17-23 | Zach Dembo: 45% | Ralph Alvarado: 44% | Lake Research Partners |
| MT-01 Campaign Internal Poll | June 22-25 | Sam Forstag: 44% | Aaron Flint: 44% | Impact Research |
| NC-03 HMP Poll | July 27 -August 2 | Raymond Smith Jr.: 41% | Greg Murphy: 44% | Tulchin Research |
| NV-02 Independent Poll | July 9-12 | Teresa Benitez-Thompson: 48% | Dave Flippo: 46% | Wedgewood Polls |
| NY-21 Independent Poll | August 4-8 | Blake Gendebien: 43% | Anthony Constantino: 39% | News13/SurveyUSA |
| OH-10 Campaign Internal Poll | July 20-23 | Kristina Knickerbocker: 40% | Mike Turner: 45% | GSG |
| SC-01 HMP Poll | July 15-22 | Nancy Lacore: 48% | Jenny Costa Honeycutt: 50% | GQR |
| VA-05 Campaign Internal Poll | July 29-August 1 | Tom Perriello: 44% | John McGuire: 47% | Expedition Strategies |
| WI-01 Campaign Internal Poll | August 6-9 | Mitchell Berman: 48% | Bryan Steil: 49% | Impact Research |
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